Summary
Counterpoint Research’s preliminary data puts global PC shipments at 57 million units in Q3 2026, down 21% year over year. It expects shipments to fall further in Q4 as higher component costs weigh on demand.
Global PC shipments fell 21% year over year to 57 million units in Q3 2026, according to preliminary data from Counterpoint Research published on October 22. Shipments were also down 13.8% from the previous quarter. Counterpoint attributes the decline to higher memory and other component costs pushing up PC prices while consumer demand remained weak.
The drop was measured against an unusually strong Q3 2025, when purchases ahead of the Windows 10 support deadline and tariff-related inventory adjustments had supported shipments. That comparison added to the reported year-over-year fall this quarter.
Higher costs meet weaker replacement demand
Counterpoint says higher prices made replacement purchases harder for consumers to justify. Commercial demand held up better, with fleet replacements and Windows migration providing support, but not enough to offset the market’s overall contraction.
The cost pressure can also affect which configurations vendors offer. Counterpoint says prioritising systems that can absorb component inflation may leave fewer affordable options, making replacement harder for price-sensitive buyers even when older devices need replacing.
The firm forecasts a 27% year-over-year decline in global shipments in Q4 2026. It expects full-year 2027 volumes to remain broadly flat compared with 2026. That forecast points to stabilisation at a lower volume level, rather than a return to growth.
Vendor results diverged
Lenovo remained the largest vendor, shipping 15 million units for a 26.3% share, despite a 23% annual decline. HP shipped 10.3 million units and held 18.1% of the market; its shipments fell 31%, the steepest decline among the six leading vendors. Dell shipped 7.6 million units, down 25%, for a 13.3% share.
| Vendor | Q3 2026 shipments | Year-over-year change | Market share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lenovo | 15 million | −23% | 26.3% |
| HP | 10.3 million | −31% | 18.1% |
| Dell | 7.6 million | −25% | 13.3% |
| Apple | 5.6 million | −11% | 9.8% |
| ASUS | 5.2 million | −7% | 9.2% |
Apple’s share rose from 8.7% a year earlier, with Counterpoint saying the MacBook Neo helped cushion its shipment decline. ASUS had the smallest annual fall among the top five and its share increased from 7.8%; shipments also rose 19.4% from Q2. Together, the five vendors accounted for 76.7% of global shipments.
Counterpoint identifies its Q3 figures as preliminary, and its Q4 and 2027 numbers are forecasts. The vendor comparisons show that some manufacturers declined less than the overall market, even as shipments fell across the leading group.