TrendForce says Apple has officially launched its first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo, and forecasts that it will ship approximately 5 million units in 2026. That would give Apple a projected 24.8% share of the global foldable-smartphone market, making it the second-largest brand behind Samsung.

The forecast comes with an important qualification: TrendForce expects the entire foldable-phone market to grow only 0.5% year on year to approximately 20.2 million units in 2026. The figures therefore point to a major shift in brand share, rather than a rapid expansion of the category as a whole.

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What changes with Apple’s entry

TrendForce describes the iPhone Duo as a book-style inward-folding smartphone. It reportedly has a 7.6-inch internal display that opens into a larger surface and a 5.4-inch cover display for use while closed.

A book-style foldable uses a hinge to open into a larger internal display while retaining a smaller external display for use when closed. The iPhone Duo is described as a book-style inward-folding device rather than a phone that folds into a smaller square or uses a rollable display.

Apple’s reported entry would add a major smartphone brand to the segment. TrendForce projects Samsung to remain the largest brand in 2026, with Apple and Huawei each forecast to hold a 24.8% share.

But TrendForce’s numbers suggest that Apple’s gains would initially be accompanied by weakness among existing Android brands. Excluding Apple, TrendForce forecasts approximately 15.2 million Android-brand foldable shipments in 2026, down by more than 20% year on year.

That means Apple’s projected 5 million units could substantially change the competitive ranking without generating a comparable increase in total category demand.

A large Apple entry in a nearly flat market

TrendForce projects the following 2026 shipment figures:

  • Global foldable smartphones: approximately 20.2 million units, up 0.5% year on year
  • Apple: approximately 5 million units, with a 24.8% share
  • Samsung: approximately 7.1 million units, with a 35.1% share
  • Huawei: approximately 5 million units, with a 24.8% share
  • Android brands excluding Apple: approximately 15.2 million units, down more than 20% year on year

The projected shares for Samsung, Apple and Huawei together amount to 84.7% of the global market, indicating a highly concentrated segment under TrendForce’s forecast.

TrendForce attributes the expected decline among existing brands mainly to sharp increases in component costs.

The forecast therefore describes a market facing two opposing forces: Apple could bring substantial volume and attention to the category, while component costs and limited demand continue to constrain overall growth.

Thinness and crease reduction are the engineering focus

TrendForce says competition is moving beyond simply offering a larger folding screen. Manufacturers are increasingly focused on thinner and lighter designs, reducing the visible crease and improving long-term reliability.

These properties depend on the complete display assembly rather than the hinge alone. Flexible OLED panels can bend because they are built on flexible substrates, but the surrounding layers must also withstand repeated folding. Ultra-thin glass provides a thin protective layer whose stiffness, thickness and placement affect bending stress. Optically clear adhesive bonds layers while preserving transparency, and its mechanical properties can influence how stress is distributed during folding.

TrendForce describes this as coordinated design involving ultra-thin glass, optically clear adhesive, OLED modules and support structures.

For the iPhone Duo, TrendForce reports a 10-layer inner-display stack made from ultra-thin materials. It also says the screen uses a nano-texture surface treatment intended to reduce reflections and make the crease less visually noticeable.

The same report gives the phone a Grade 5 titanium frame and hinge cover. It is described as weighing approximately 254 grams and measuring approximately 5.2 millimetres thick when unfolded and 11.3 millimetres when folded.

These specifications illustrate the packaging challenge in a foldable phone: the device must accommodate two display states, a hinge, structural support and other components while remaining thin enough to be practical as a phone.

The reported hardware and software trade-offs

TrendForce says the iPhone Duo does not include a dedicated periscope telephoto camera. Instead, its 48-megapixel main camera is reported to provide 2x optical-quality zoom.

It also says Apple replaces Face ID with a side-mounted Touch ID sensor. These choices could reflect the space and packaging constraints involved in fitting the folding display and hinge into the reported thickness, although the supplied material does not quantify how much internal space each component requires.

On the software side, TrendForce says iOS 27 adds an enhanced Split View, continuity between the inner and outer displays, and interfaces optimised for different folding angles. The larger internal screen could provide more room to view source material alongside generated output or to use multiple applications, but the source does not provide independent testing of these features.

TrendForce also says the phone integrates Apple Intelligence and Siri AI, including natural-language interactions, contextual understanding and in-app actions. These are reported capabilities, not independently measured evidence that the device will improve productivity or create new demand for foldable phones.

The source does not provide a launch price, battery capacity, processor specification, storage options, detailed durability rating, release markets or regional availability.

What the forecast does not establish

This is an industry market forecast and product assessment, not a scientific or clinical study. TrendForce is the sole supplied source and is also the organisation making the projections.

The shipment figures are prospective estimates rather than measured sales. The supplied report does not provide its underlying methodology, assumptions, shipment database, confidence range or full definition of the market. It also does not clarify whether the figures refer to sell-in shipments, sell-through sales, a full calendar year or another reporting basis.

The projected 24.8% Apple share will depend on the number of iPhone Duo units actually produced and shipped, as well as the final size and definition of the market being measured. The forecast also does not quantify how much of the projected change is due to Apple’s entry, component costs, consumer demand or product availability.

Similarly, TrendForce’s assessment that Apple’s requirements could accelerate development of displays, ultra-thin glass, hinges and manufacturing processes is a potential supply-chain effect. The supplied evidence does not show that such improvements have already occurred.

What to watch next

The key test will be whether the iPhone Duo reaches the approximately 5 million shipments projected for 2026. Its actual price, production capacity, launch markets and availability will help determine whether Apple’s entry expands the category or mainly redistributes share.

The response from Samsung and Chinese manufacturers will also show whether Apple’s arrival changes foldable-phone design, pricing or camera and biometric specifications. Of particular importance will be measurable changes in manufacturing yields, hinge reliability, crease visibility and component costs.

Finally, Apple’s foldable-specific software and AI features will need to demonstrate value beyond the larger display itself. If multitasking, continuity between screens and AI-assisted workflows lead to sustained use, they could support demand for the form factor. The TrendForce report, however, does not yet provide evidence that these features will produce that outcome.

Sources