TrendForce says Apple has launched its first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo, and estimates that the device could ship approximately 5 million units in 2026. That would give Apple a projected 24.8% share of the global foldable-smartphone market, according to the market-research firm.

The same forecast puts total global foldable-smartphone shipments at approximately 20.2 million units in 2026, up just 0.5% year over year. TrendForce therefore describes Apple’s entry as a change in the competitive balance more than a major expansion of the market itself.

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What changed

The iPhone Duo is described as a book-style foldable: it opens inward to reveal a 7.6-inch inner display and has a 5.4-inch cover display for use while closed. A book-style design provides more screen area when open without requiring the user to unfold the phone for every task, but it also creates engineering trade-offs involving thickness, weight, internal space, cameras, battery capacity and durability.

TrendForce describes the device as using a 10-layer inner-display stack made from ultra-thin materials. A nano-texture surface treatment is intended to reduce reflections and make the crease less visually noticeable. These are design objectives described in the release, not results from independent testing.

The reported physical specifications are:

  • approximately 254 grams;
  • approximately 5.2 millimetres thick when unfolded;
  • approximately 11.3 millimetres thick when folded;
  • a Grade 5 titanium frame and hinge cover.

The source also says the iPhone Duo does not include a dedicated periscope telephoto camera. Its 48-megapixel main camera provides 2x optical-quality zoom, while a side-mounted Touch ID sensor replaces Face ID.

On the software side, TrendForce says iOS 27 adds enhanced Split View, continuity between the inner and outer displays, and interfaces designed for different folding angles. Those features make the two-screen states and the hinge position part of the operating-system experience rather than treating the device as an ordinary phone with an unusually large screen.

How the reported design works

A foldable display cannot be engineered by treating the hinge as an isolated mechanism. The display assembly, flexible glass or other cover materials, adhesive layers and support structures must tolerate repeated bending while maintaining optical quality.

TrendForce attributes the reported crease reduction to coordinated optimisation of ultra-thin glass, optical clear adhesive, OLED modules and support structures. Optical clear adhesive bonds display layers while preserving optical clarity. In a foldable assembly, the stiffness, thickness distribution and position of each layer affect how the display bends and how visible the fold becomes.

The 10-layer construction and nano-texture treatment are therefore presented as part of a broader system-level approach. The nano-texture is intended to reduce reflections, while TrendForce presents the display stack and support structures as part of an approach intended to make the crease less prominent and support reliability. That reliability is a design aim described by the source, not a demonstrated result. The supplied evidence does not include measurements of crease depth, crease visibility under different lighting conditions or hinge-cycle durability.

The source reports the iPhone Duo’s camera and biometric choices but does not explain their engineering rationale. It says the device omits a dedicated periscope telephoto camera, uses a 48-megapixel main camera with 2x optical-quality zoom and replaces Face ID with a side-mounted Touch ID sensor.

A large first year, but a nearly flat market

TrendForce’s 2026 brand forecast is:

Brand Projected 2026 shipments Projected market share
Samsung Approximately 7.1 million 35.1%
Apple Approximately 5 million 24.8%
Huawei Approximately 5 million 24.8%
Other brands Not specified in the release Remaining share

These are forecasts, not final shipment figures. TrendForce projects Samsung to remain the largest brand, with Apple and Huawei each at 24.8%.

Excluding Apple, the firm expects Android-brand foldable shipments to total approximately 15.2 million units in 2026, down by more than 20% year over year. That decline largely explains why projected 5 million Apple shipments in 2026 do not translate into much overall market growth.

TrendForce says higher component costs are contributing to flat or lower shipments for many established brands. It expects Apple’s initial demand to offset declines among existing foldable-phone makers rather than substantially increase the total number of foldable devices sold.

If the forecast is realised, Apple would become a major foldable-phone brand in its first forecast year. It could also put pressure on Samsung and Chinese manufacturers to reassess their designs, improve specifications and reduce costs. Those are expected industry responses, however, rather than outcomes established by the current data.

Why the hardware and software matter

The reported product strategy places emphasis on integration rather than maximising every specification. The combination of a 7.6-inch inner display, a 5.4-inch cover display, a 5.2-millimetre unfolded profile and a crease-reduction system suggests that display consistency, weight and structural design are central to the device’s positioning.

A larger opened display can support multitasking by allowing more content or applications to remain visible at once. TrendForce identifies real-time translation, content creation, image editing, document summarisation and cross-application collaboration as possible AI use cases for foldable devices. Users could, for example, view generated material alongside source content or keep multiple applications visible.

The release does not provide usage data, benchmark results or evidence that these AI and multitasking features improve productivity or increase demand. Their significance will depend on how reliably the software handles transitions between the cover and inner screens, how well interfaces adapt to different folding angles and whether users find the larger display worth the added weight and complexity.

This is why the product’s importance extends beyond the physical hinge. A foldable phone needs coordinated changes to the display assembly, chassis, cameras, biometric hardware and operating system. The market question is not only whether Apple can produce a foldable iPhone, but whether the combined experience creates demand beyond the novelty of a larger screen.

What the forecast does not establish

The figures come from a TrendForce press release summarising the firm’s own market estimates and product analysis. The release does not provide the underlying forecast model, dataset, confidence range or detailed definition of “foldable smartphone market share.” The 20.2-million-unit total and the brand-level figures should therefore be treated as projections.

The supplied evidence also does not establish:

  • the iPhone Duo’s price, battery capacity, processor or storage options;
  • its launch date, regional availability or final configuration in different markets;
  • an India price, India launch date or India availability;
  • independent measurements of crease visibility, hinge durability, display reliability, battery life, camera performance or thermal behaviour;
  • that Apple will achieve the projected 24.8% share;
  • that Apple’s component requirements will produce measurable supply-chain improvements;
  • that foldable-specific AI features will increase sales.

TrendForce’s claim that Apple’s requirements could help mature the supply chain is a forecast about possible medium- and long-term effects, not a measured result.

What to watch next

The most important test will be the difference between TrendForce’s forecast and Apple’s realised 2026 shipments and market share. It will also be important to see whether the overall foldable market grows beyond the replacement of declining Android-brand shipments.

Independent testing should clarify how the reported 10-layer display stack and nano-texture treatment perform in practice, including crease visibility, reflection control, hinge reliability, battery life, camera quality and thermal behaviour. The device’s weight and folded thickness will matter in everyday use, especially if the larger inner screen requires users to accept a heavier phone.

The longer-term industry question is whether Apple’s design and component requirements lead to larger production volumes, lower component costs or new approaches to hinges, ultra-thin glass and display integration. Finally, the success of foldable-specific multitasking and AI features will depend on actual usage rather than the availability of the functions alone.

Sources