Summary
A report from Environmental Defense Fund and Atlas Public Policy says fossil fuels could make up about 70% of US power capacity coming online in 2030 if current projects proceed. The analysis draws on generator project data reported through the second quarter of 2026.
A report released on October 13, 2026, by Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and Atlas Public Policy finds that the US power project pipeline is shifting toward fossil fuels. If projects now planned come online as scheduled, fossil fuels—primarily natural gas—could account for about 70% of new power capacity entering service in 2030, the report says.
That projection is a change from recent additions: fossil power accounted for 5% of new capacity in 2024, while clean energy still dominates capacity coming online now. The report says that reflects projects planned and developed over several years, even as the mix of projects in development changes.
What the pipeline indicates
Developers expect to build about 68 gigawatts (GW) of new fossil-fuel capacity between 2026 and 2030, nearly all of it natural gas. That figure has risen 45% in six months, according to the report. Fossil projects now represent approximately 30% of the development pipeline, the highest share since 2016.
Capacity describes the potential output of power plants, not the amount of electricity they will actually generate over a year. A projection that fossil fuels supply about 70% of new capacity in 2030 therefore does not mean they will produce 70% of US electricity that year.
The analysis links the shift to rising electricity demand, including demand from data centres, and to policies that the report says have terminated wind and solar credits, impeded clean-energy development, extended the operation of coal plants and supported fossil-fuel investment. These factors are described as contributing to the changing pipeline, rather than as a guarantee that every planned plant will be built.
Cost and project uncertainties
The report compares lifetime average costs of about $68–69 per megawatt-hour for new wind and utility-scale solar with $90 per megawatt-hour for new combined-cycle natural gas power. It argues that greater reliance on fossil fuels could expose consumers to higher construction costs and volatile fuel prices. These generation-cost figures are not the same as household electricity bills.
The project outlook is uncertain. Developers cancelled 4.9% of planned and under-construction clean-power capacity in 2025, compared with 2.9% of fossil projects in the pipeline. The report also identifies gas-turbine shortages, rising costs and uncertainty about future electricity demand as factors that could prevent some proposed fossil projects from being completed.
Coal retirements have also fallen short of earlier plans. Owners had intended to retire 8.5 GW of coal capacity in 2025, but less than 1 GW retired—the lowest amount since 2009. EDF and Atlas say federal policies could further slow retirements; the report notes that the administration announced $850 million to support coal facilities, including two proposed new plants.
The analysis uses US Energy Information Administration generator reports compiled through Atlas Public Policy’s Clean Economy Tracker, with project data reported through the second quarter of 2026. Its projections describe the reported development pipeline at that point, not completed construction. The authors argue that decisions about generation and transmission made now will shape future costs, emissions and reliability as electricity demand grows.