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Khabre desk
Recent reporting, analysis and explainers from the epidemiology desk.
health
A Nature Medicine study using global temperature and mortality data estimates that very strong El Niño years are associated with more heat-related deaths and fewer cold-related deaths worldwide. The estimated increase in heat mortality was concentrated in low- and medium-HDI countries.
health
A BMJ editorial says preventing exposure should remain central to protecting health from PFAS. It summarizes evidence associating certain PFAS with several health outcomes, including kidney and testicular cancer.
health
A Global Burden of Disease analysis estimates that pertussis incidence and age-standardized mortality declined between 1990 and 2023. Its modeled estimates show that the highest population-adjusted mortality risk remained among infants aged 1–5 months.
health
A medRxiv preprint analysing 16 Ugandan districts from 2017 to 2022 found that higher prevalence of Kelch13 artemisinin-resistance markers was associated with higher confirmed malaria incidence. The observational analysis also found associations with partner-drug resistance markers, climate and malaria-control coverage.
health
A medRxiv preprint assesses where Japanese encephalitis virus circulated in Australia during 2021–23 and where environmental conditions were suitable for transmission. It identifies northern floodplains and inland eastern areas as regions with both high estimated suitability and strong evidence of circulation.
health
A medRxiv preprint analysing dengue cases across 435 Brazilian health regions reports that climate information improved forecasts at lead times of one to 12 months. The authors found different combinations of dry, warm and wet conditions associated with higher relative risk across climate zones.
health
A medRxiv preprint combining 82 population surveys found that bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB prevalence rose with age across 30 low- and middle-income countries. Notification-to-prevalence ratios fell in older age groups, which the authors say suggests poorer case detection.
health
An analysis of US county data from 2011 to 2025 found that measles outbreaks have become more closely associated with local vaccination coverage and have spread more often across county borders. A spatial model identified counties at higher risk, and projected that a five-percentage-point coverage increase in the highest-risk counties could reduce long-term national measles risk by more than 90%.
health
A preprint analysing Bangladesh’s 2025 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey estimates that 38.5% of children aged 12–59 months had elevated blood lead. Prevalence was higher in wealthier and urban households, though it remained substantial in the poorest group.
health
A prospective cohort study of 12,235 adults in England linked more days above WHO daily NO₂ guideline values with faster subsequent decline in memory and verbal fluency. The observational findings come from a medRxiv preprint.
health
A Nature Medicine correspondence proposes tracking how quickly Ebola alerts lead to investigation, isolation and care, alongside conventional surveillance coverage. It cites DRC outbreak figures showing high reported case and death totals despite extensive alert investigation and contact follow-up.
science
A global analysis of 58,319 outbreak events across 32 diseases found shared landscape associations for several vector-borne infections, but less consistent patterns for directly transmitted zoonoses. The study also found that outbreak reporting was strongly associated with access to healthcare.
health
A surveillance-based modeling study estimates that a 2020 mass oral cholera vaccination campaign in Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo, averted 56% of infections and deaths over the following three years. The preprint estimates that 2,350 facility-attended cases and 44 facility and community deaths were prevented.
health
Pennsylvania has reported a fourth measles-associated death, involving an 18-year-old, according to a 16 September 2026 report in The BMJ. The deaths are not included in the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s national measles mortality tally.
health
A medRxiv preprint uses an agent-based model to link mpox clade IIb’s persistence to asynchronous transmission across connected global sexual-contact networks. The model estimates that local extinction became much less likely when transmission continued in other regions and later re-entered Europe.
health
A longitudinal analysis of 188 countries from 2000 to 2023 found that Hib and pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction was associated with lower meningitis disability-adjusted life-year rates. The largest reported association was in the African meningitis belt, although the study describes the results as population-level vaccine-associated changes rather than strictly causal effects.
health
A medRxiv preprint links the timing of early-life exposure to mixtures of nine metals with risk-taking, reward sensitivity and task-related brain activity in adolescents from a Mexico City birth cohort. The observational findings come from tooth biomarkers and functional MRI data.
health
A medRxiv preprint finds that Ethiopia’s current meningococcal surveillance cannot determine whether protection from the MenAfriVac campaign is waning or which non-A serogroups are circulating. An indirect model estimates population protection fell from 85% in 2015 to 24% in 2024.
health
A UK analysis of around 980,000 adults found that people reporting six or more cups of tea or coffee at “very hot” temperatures had three times the risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma compared with those reporting warm drinks. The result came from more than 10 years of health-record follow-up and describes an association.