Summary
A commissioned BMJ opinion argues that conflict and climate change are worsening local food insecurity, even as global calorie production per person rises. It calls for more resilient food systems and targeted support for vulnerable households.
A commissioned opinion published by The BMJ on 21 October 2026 argues that conflict and climate change are intensifying local food shortages, despite rising global calorie production per person. Elizabeth J Z Robinson, a professor of environmental economics at the London School of Economics, calls for changes across food production, trade and household support. The article is commissioned and was not externally peer reviewed.
How conflict and climate affect food access
Conflict can disrupt food security at several points: land may be abandoned or harder to farm, people may be displaced, markets can become inaccessible, and households may lose the means to afford enough food. Robinson notes that the consequences can persist beyond an immediate shortage, including higher prevalence of stunting.
The opinion cites the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises from the Food and Agriculture Organization and World Food Programme. It identifies 13 countries and territories where acute food insecurity is expected to increase; 12 are affected by armed conflict and violence. The report identifies famine risk in Sudan, South Sudan, the Gaza Strip and Somalia. Other estimates cited in the article place around 60%–70% of the world’s most undernourished people in conflict-affected areas, and 85% of people facing hunger in conflict-affected countries.
Climate change adds pressure through rising temperatures and more frequent or intense extremes, including heatwaves and precipitation extremes. These can damage crops, alter the spread of pests and diseases, disrupt supply chains and increase food-price volatility. Robinson cites an estimate that 123.7 million additional people experienced moderate or severe food insecurity in 2023 because heatwave days and drought months were more frequent than in 1981–2010.
The relationship between climate and conflict-related food insecurity is complex. The article says there is no clear consensus on how far climate change drives that link, while describing climate shocks as a threat multiplier that can worsen hunger in places already affected by conflict. Food insecurity can also contribute to instability, creating the potential for crises to reinforce one another.
Building resilience across food systems
Robinson argues that concentrated supply creates vulnerability when conflict or climate shocks interrupt production or trade. Three crops—rice, wheat and maize—provide more than 40% of the world’s food calories, while five breadbasket countries supply around four fifths of the international maize market, according to figures cited in the article. Disruptions to Ukrainian exports and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are presented as examples of how conflict can affect global food and agricultural input markets.
The proposed responses span immediate relief and longer-term changes. Anticipatory cash or food support can help households in affected areas, while targeted safety nets can protect people when rising prices make food unaffordable even where supplies exist. For farmers, the article highlights climate insurance, drought-resistant seeds and smart irrigation, alongside investment in agricultural technology and innovation.
Over time, Robinson argues, more diverse sources of food and agricultural inputs, regional storage and stronger local food systems could provide alternatives when trade routes or harvests are disrupted. She also points to reducing food loss and waste and shifting towards more plant-based diets, particularly in higher-income countries, as ways to reduce emissions and increase food availability. The article says the agri-food sector accounts for almost a third of total emissions.
The central policy argument is that food security depends not only on how much food is produced globally, but also on whether it can reach people at an affordable price when conflict and climate shocks disrupt the system.