Summary
A longitudinal analysis of 3,792 people found that more periods outside education, employment or training between ages 16 and 33 were associated with poorer mental-health outcomes at age 33. The findings come from a medRxiv preprint based on the ALSPAC birth cohort.
A longitudinal study of 3,792 people found that repeated periods outside education, employment or training were associated with poorer mental-health outcomes at age 33. The analysis, posted as a medRxiv preprint, tracked participants from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and examined NEET experiences between ages 16 and 33.
NEET refers to being not in education, employment or training. The researchers found that each additional NEET occasion was associated with higher odds of depression, anxiety, lower life satisfaction and a recent suicide attempt at age 33. The study describes associations in a population cohort rather than testing an intervention.
How the study measured NEET trajectories
The researchers conducted a secondary analysis of the population-based ALSPAC birth cohort. Participants were followed from birth to age 33, with 3,792 individuals included in the analysis.
NEET exposure was assessed in several ways: as the total number of occasions, as four categories—zero, one, two, or three or more occasions—and according to the age of first NEET status. The researchers also compared single, sustained and recurrent NEET patterns among people who had ever been NEET.
Mental-health outcomes at age 33 included depression measured with the Short Mood and Feelings Questionnaire, anxiety measured with the Generalised Anxiety Disorder 7-item scale, lower life satisfaction measured with the Satisfaction With Life Scale, and a recent suicide attempt.
Repeated occasions showed a graded association
For every additional NEET occasion, the odds were higher for depression, with an odds ratio of 1.29 and a 95% confidence interval of 1.18 to 1.40. The corresponding odds ratios were 1.21 for anxiety, with a 95% confidence interval of 1.11 to 1.32; 1.53 for lower life satisfaction, with a 95% confidence interval of 1.40 to 1.68; and 1.51 for a recent suicide attempt, with a 95% confidence interval of 1.28 to 1.77.
The pattern was also visible when participants were compared with people who had never been NEET. Depression odds were higher among those with three or more NEET occasions, with an odds ratio of 2.68 and a 95% confidence interval of 1.74 to 4.11. Lower life satisfaction increased stepwise from one to three or more occasions, reaching an odds ratio of 5.97 at three or more occasions, with a 95% confidence interval of 3.93 to 9.05. The odds of a recent suicide attempt also increased stepwise, reaching 7.40 at three or more occasions, with a 95% confidence interval of 3.08 to 17.80.
The age at which NEET status first occurred was relevant to the pattern. Associations were strongest when the first occasion occurred between ages 25 and 33. First NEET status between ages 16 and 20 was also associated with a recent suicide attempt, with an odds ratio of 4.49 and a 95% confidence interval of 2.20 to 9.17.
Among participants who had ever been NEET, sustained and recurrent patterns showed little additional association beyond a single occasion for most outcomes. The exceptions were lower life satisfaction, where the odds ratio was 2.60, and a recent suicide attempt, where it was 3.16.
The authors say the findings point to identifying mental-health needs when a person first enters NEET status and to preventing repeated periods of disengagement as possible intervention targets. Because this was an observational analysis of an existing birth cohort, the results describe relationships between NEET histories and later mental health; they do not assess the effect of a specific support programme or establish the pathways producing the associations.
The study is a medRxiv preprint and is therefore preliminary pending peer review. Its results come from the ALSPAC cohort, so further research would be needed to assess how consistently the pattern appears in other populations and settings.