Summary
A Global Burden of Disease analysis estimates 887,000 cervical cancer cases in 2023 and forecasts deaths to rise 39.3% by 2050, even as age-standardized rates may decline.
A Global Burden of Disease (GBD) analysis estimates that cervical cancer caused 887,000 new cases and 369,000 deaths worldwide in 2023. Its forecasts to 2050 point to a divergence: the number of cases and deaths is expected to grow, even as age-standardized rates are projected to fall. The study covers 204 countries and territories and estimates burden from 1990 to 2023.
The 2023 estimates include 13.3 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with a 95% uncertainty interval of 10.1–17.4 million. DALYs measure health lost through premature death and time lived with illness or disability. The estimated totals for new cases and deaths also have broad intervals: 682,000–1,170,000 cases and 292,000–475,000 deaths.
Rates and totals tell different stories
From 1990 to 2023, the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) changed by an estimated −0.4%, with a reported interval of −26.6% to 34.7%. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) changed by −17.5% (−36.2% to 13.4%). Both intervals include no change, so the direction of the long-term trends is uncertain. Age-standardization adjusts for differences in population age structure, making rates more useful for comparing underlying burden across populations and over time.
The analysis also found a large income-related gap: age-standardized incidence was more than four times higher in low-income than high-income countries, while age-standardized mortality was more than seven times higher. These comparisons describe rates, not the total number of people affected in each income group.
The study attributes all cervical cancer DALYs to human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and estimates that tobacco use contributed 5.9% globally, with an interval of 3.2–9.3%. These are risk-attribution estimates within the GBD analysis.
Why the 2050 forecast matters
Compared with 2024, the study forecasts that by 2050 the global ASIR will change by −12.5% (−25.7% to 3.5%) and the ASMR by −9.0% (−21.5% to 6.6%). The estimated changes in rates are declines, but both intervals extend across zero, so increases remain within the forecast range.
In the same period, absolute case numbers are forecast to rise by 20.2% (4.6–38.5%) and deaths by 39.3% (23.6–57.3%). Rates and totals answer different public-health questions: standardized rates help compare risk across populations, while total cases and deaths indicate the scale of illness and loss of life. The forecasts suggest that a possible reduction in rates would not necessarily mean fewer people affected worldwide.
The study projects that age-standardized incidence and mortality will remain highest in low-income countries. Together, the burden estimates and forecasts highlight both the scale of cervical cancer globally and the persistent inequality in its impact. The forecasts are population-level estimates, and the reported intervals—particularly for rate changes—show that the direction and size of future trends are not certain.