Summary
Researchers used self-reported data from 6.1 million people in 118 countries to create reference curves for pain across ages 5 to over 100. The estimates show different age patterns by pain site and higher late-life prevalence of several pain types in lower-HDI settings.
Researchers have created global reference curves showing how self-reported pain varies across the lifespan, using data from 6,125,459 people in 118 countries and territories. Published in Nature Medicine on 5 October 2026, the study found that pain patterns differed by body site and age, and that several types of pain were more prevalent in older age groups in lower-Human Development Index (HDI) settings.
The researchers also made the curves available through an open-access benchmarking tool, which can be used to compare other datasets with the study’s estimates.
How the reference curves were built
The analysis combined 902 data sources from 138 population-based study programmes. The surveys and studies were conducted between 1990 and 2025 and included participants aged 5 to over 100. Researchers harmonized differences in questions and body-map reporting to estimate pain prevalence at 11 anatomical sites, including the head, back, knee and abdomen.
They used mixed-effects statistical models to estimate age-specific prevalence, allowing the curves to follow nonlinear patterns rather than assuming pain rises steadily with age. Estimates were adjusted for factors including recall period, and standardized to a past-month recall period and a general pain definition. The resulting curves are population reference estimates, not a tool for diagnosing individuals.
Across sites, estimated prevalence ranged from about 2% for facial pain to 40% for back pain. Women reported higher prevalence than men at all 11 sites, with risk ratios ranging from 1.08 to 1.83. For most sites, prevalence rose fastest before age 55. Seven of the 11 sites had an estimated pattern in which prevalence peaked in mid-to-late adulthood and then declined; the timing varied by site.
The overall measure of any bodily pain followed a different pattern, increasing from about 30% at age 5 to about 70% at age 100 or older. Measures of more severe or widespread pain showed peaks instead: high-intensity pain, defined as an average rating of at least 7 on a 0–10 scale, peaked around age 50, while generalized pain peaked around age 70.
Late-life patterns differed by national development
Regional estimates were broadly similar in early adulthood but diverged after about age 65 for several outcomes. In the study’s comparisons by national HDI, estimated prevalence of any bodily pain at age 80 or older was 30.6 percentage points higher in low-HDI than in high-HDI settings (95% confidence interval: 26.9–34.3). Low back pain prevalence in low-HDI settings approached twice that in high-HDI settings at the oldest ages.
These are modelled differences in self-reported pain, not evidence that national development itself causes pain. The researchers noted that the factors behind the higher burden in lower-HDI settings remain poorly characterized. Their analysis of smoking, obesity and low income estimated that these exposures together accounted for 18.3% of pain burden across sites globally, with regional estimates ranging from 12.6% in sub-Saharan Africa to 27.1% in eastern Europe.
The curves offer a shared reference for comparing population surveys and clinical datasets, including from places that have been underrepresented in pain surveillance. Interpretation requires care: most contributing datasets were cross-sectional, so age patterns do not track the same people as they grow older. Surveys also varied in wording, recall periods and sampling, and the estimates describe current or recent symptoms rather than how long pain persists. The researchers report that coverage was uneven across regions and ages, which affects precision where data are sparse.